The world of esports has exploded in popularity in recent years, with revenues projected to surpass $1 billion in 2019. Alongside this growth, esports betting has emerged as a massive industry, with wagers on major tournaments now rivaling traditional sports betting. However, despite its prevalence, the inner workings of esports bookmaking algorithms remain poorly understood by most bettors. This article aims to shed light on how the odds for esports matches are calculated and set.
How Bookmakers Generate Odds
At its core, the oddsmaking process relies on statistical models and algorithms to analyze theprobabilities of different outcomes occurring. Bookmakers feed huge amounts of data into these models – including team/player rankings, head-to-head records, map win rates, past results and more – to quantify the chances of each team winning, losing or drawing a given match. The outputs of these algorithms are then used to determine the betting odds.
Of course, bookmakers don’t rely on algorithms alone. Their trading teams study factors like roster changes, injuries, and form to identify matches where the statistical models may misprice outcomes. For high-profile matches, bookmakers will also aim to balance their books by adjusting odds to account for public betting patterns. However, the opening prices and line movements for most esports matches are predominantly driven by complex mathematical models.
The Key Factors That Influence Esports Odds
While the specific details of oddsmaking algorithms are closely guarded secrets, we can deduce the main inputs that drive their outputs based on the key variables for esports match predictions:
Team Strength Ratings
Bookmakers derive quantitative ratings for each team based on their past results. Ratings are adjusted up or down after every match to reflect changing team strengths. These ratings are a major factor in estimating win probabilities.
Head-to-Head Records
Historical head-to-head results between two teams are insightful predictors of future outcomes. Most models place significant weight on win rates in previous meetings.
Map Advantages
Every map and game mode has different meta strategies, lending some teams distinct matchup advantages. Models account for head-to-head map records and team map pick rates when available.
Player Performance Data
Player-focused data like KDA ratios, damage-per-minute, and other stats are factored in to judge the capabilities of each team.
Simulating Match Outcomes
To actually generate odds, bookmakers simulate matches thousands of times using Monte Carlo methods. For each simulation, the model adjusts team strength ratings and player performance variables within defined confidence intervals to account for randomness and uncertainty in predictions. The winning percentages from these simulations determine the implied probabilities – and therefore odds – for each outcome.
This modelling approach allows bookmakers to quantify team performance variability and how different factors like the map, first pick advantage etc might affect results. The simulated match forecasts and betting lines are constantly updated as new information emerges right up until match start.
Setting Competitive Odds
While bookmakers aim to set accurate odds that reflect true probabilities, commercial factors inevitably influence their pricing. By tweaking variables in their models, bookmakers can shade odds to increase their profit margins on certain matches and outcomes.
To remain competitive, however, bookmakers cannot stray too far from the “true” probabilities. Major errors will be exploited by sharp bettors, so bookmakers are incentivized to keep their odds broadly in line with the outputs of their algorithms.
Key Considerations for Bettors
Understanding how bookmakers generate esports odds can help bettors make smarter wagering decisions. Here are some key takeaways:
- Bookmakers’ statistical models dictate opening odds and movements
- Team ratings, H2H records and map advantages are critical variables
- Odds are not perfect predictors – there is an edge to be gained
- Line shopping across books is worthwhile – prices do vary
While the bookmakers have vast data resources, bettors can analyze matches from a different perspective. By combining knowledge of team strengths and tendencies with research on the current form, it is possible to gain an edge vs the bookmakers’ models. However, caution is required – the odds are generally efficient predictors. Wager sizes should reflect the degree of confidence in your analysis.
Unlike traditional sports, esports are played online, so it is possible to gather data and run your own statistical models. While recreational bettors won’t match the bookmakers’ capabilities, it is still worthwhile tracking factors like head-to-head records, team rankings and map win rates. Studying the outputs can help identify betting value.
In summary, Esports betting odds are generated by complex algorithms that simulate matches thousands of times to quantify outcome probabilities. While bookmakers closely guard the details of their models, we know factors like team ratings, head-to-head records, map win rates and player stats are key inputs. Understanding how these systems work can help bettors make informed wagering decisions. However, beating the bookmaker remains a formidable challenge – their extensive data modeling ensures the odds are efficient predictors in most cases. By combining knowledge of teams and players with statistical analysis, it is possible to gain an edge, but caution must be exercised given the bookmakers’ predictive capabilities. While the house usually wins, esports betting can still be an exciting way to engage with your favorite titles – as long as you bet responsibly and within your means.
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